2018-08-14

【立場新聞】全文轉載:陳浩天 FCC 演說全文:港獨是達成香港民主唯一方法 (980)


Speech at the FCC

as given by Andy Chan Ho-Tin, Convenor of Hong Kong National Party

14th August, 2018

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. If I may first thank the FCC for having me here today despite all the challenges you must’ve faced - personally, in these past few weeks, I myself and people around me have been subject to a level of physical surveillance I’ve never experienced before. So I really do appreciate that the FCC stood by their decision to host this talk.

The Hong Kong National Party - it all started in 2016, when my friends and I founded what was truly the first political party that had “Hong Kong independence” clearly stated as one of its central goals. Due to the nature of how the Chinese propaganda machine works, the National Party was instantly demonised as some sort of extremist group due to this single word: “independence”. In reality, what the National Party is chasing after is no different from what many Hong Kongers wish for: the dream of democracy, here, in our home, Hong Kong.

What is different is how much people wish to face the truth: the truth thata democracy is nothing if final, ultimate power does not rest with the people. In political terms, the National Party understand that, if Hong Kong were to become truly democratic, Hong Kong’s sovereignty must rest with the people of Hong Kong. And there is only one way to achieve this: independence.

Thus we saw it our duty to help form a “national consciousness” for Hong Kong,and to that end, the first big thing we did was to run for the LegCo election, in 2016. The government, as you all know, reacted with such over-reaction that I was disqualified before the voting even began! And all of this, of course, was done with “administrative procedures”, which allowed the government to cunningly deny me my constitutional rights via so-called “legal” means. After this, the National Party went on to strive for our goal by other ways: educational programmes for students, flyerings, rallies - all was done to arouse Hong Kong’s “national consciousness”, in defence against what is effectively our current colonial rule under the Chinese.

The Hong Kong National Party has faced political oppression numerous times after the LegCo disqualification. We tried to registerasa company,and was rejected. We tried to set up astall in the Lunar New Year Night Market, and was rejected as well. We even had the honour to receive the first ever “Letter Prohibiting Assembly” from the Police since 1997. And now,as you all know, the government is trying to shut us down completely, calling us an “illegal society”. Time and again, our government has shown that whatever “freedom” or “democracy” they claim to be upholding are but Communist mirages - lofty words that Peking only finds useful in deceiving you, the foreign press, and not actually allowing them to the people of Hong Kong. The situation is so dire that we dare say Hong Kong has never experienced such horrid colonialism until 1997. Peking is now our colonial masters, and the Hong Kong National Party has a real need to exist.

The nature of China is oppression. At its heart, the empire that existed in the 18th century still stands today, despite all its technologicaladvances. Chinais nota modern nation state, much lessa civic society. China is a large empire, and for centuries she has always operated on the principle of centralised power. For this, all its dominions must be forced to assimilate, and to follow the party line, lest any differences challenge the central authority. All is well under this system if you were part of those who don’t need assimilating, but if you happen to be born into one of these national identities that are markedly different, then all is lost. Look at East Turkestan; look at Tibet. Nations forced to follow, or face the penalty of death. Even worse, you get sent to one of these re-education camps, where dying is better than living. Of course, these camps have not appeared here yet, but the will of China is the same: if you’re different, you’re wrong. The same now happens to Taiwan, and here, to Hong Kong.

Peking likes to say that the People’s Republic of Chinaisa nation state,and that there isa national people called “Zhonghua Minzu”, or the “Chinese race”, a fabricated idea to serve the political needs of an empire. Within this umbrella, and with the ambiguity of the Chinese language with regards to nations and races, Peking would claim that everyone, from the Tibetans and Mongolians, to the Shanghaiese, the Taiwanese, the Hong Kongese, and even to the Chinese diaspora in the US, the UK, Australia… you name it. All of that, Peking claims to be part of the “Zhonghua” race, and therefore, by their logic, loyal subjects to whoever controls the seat of Peking. To the educated this would sound absurd, but it is the official party line from Peking. They would claim this is a form of nationalism,and that Chinaisa nation state, when in reality all that Peking has is imperialism. All people around the world who has dealings with China should understand this: China is, by its nature as an empire, a threat to all free peoples in the world. Already have we seen Peking betraying the Seventeen Point Agreement with Tibet;already have we seen Peking betraying its promises when joining the WTO; and already have we seen Peking betraying the Sino-British Joint Declaration, leaving us Hong Kongers with less and less freedoms.

In the past 21 years, Hong Kong has progressed in only one direction: backwards. Not only have we failed to attain truly democratic elections, we are also marching ever closer to a dictatorship with Chinese characteristics. Hong Kong, being a financial centre, tasted China’s forced assimilation first via our economy. Chinese capital was allowed to flood Hong Kong, in particular industries that our daily lives depend on: think infrastructure, think catering, think the media.

The second step was the ideological and the cultural,and that, to all who dared to pay attention, is already underway. Our first Chief Executive, Tung Chee-Hwa, resigned after trying and failing to push the National Security Bill, based on the infamous Article 23. Hong Kong’s consensus back in 2003 was that China’s interpretation of what constitutes secession and subversion was simply wrong. China thinks that simply talking about subversion is already subversion, or even worse, it only takes a single official thinking you’re thinking about secession, then you’re a traitor, and should be arrested. Soon, with China’s improvements in AI and surveillance technology, the plot of Minority Report might turn to reality. The tragedy we are all now witnessing is that while Article 23 has not yet been implemented in law, its effects are already here. The Hong Kong National Party experienced this first-hand. Simply saying you are pro-independence is somehow the same as committing treason,according to some. And the sad thing is that, by now, many Hong Kongers have changed - we were still fighting back Article 23 in 2003, but in 2018, many are now afraid to speak up. There is, in other words, no longer freedom of speech in Hong Kong, but instead the freedom to think and say whatever Peking wants us to. Hong Kong is no longer that much different from China, and the international community have to acknowledge that.

Unhappy with just subverting Hong Kong using money and ideology, China is also sending its loyal subjects here - 150 of them, everyday, via the One-way Permit scheme. Normally, immigration done right gives the host society immense benefits, but the way that the Chinese Hong Kong government handles it is nothing short of a political decision, designed to destroy all that we hold dear. Local communities were shattered, because of the rapid influx of an incompatible culture. Our medical resources were stretched to its limits, with our own mothers struggling to find a single bed to give birth in. The labour market was flooded with people who are happy to take wages far below the normal point. Our very living space is taken from us. Even our language, the words that shape our thoughts, are being demonised. Per China’s orders, Hong Kong’s future generations will now abandon Cantonese and switch entirely to Mandarin. There are those still in the education sector who oppose this, but thearm of Peking is ever unrelenting. It will not be a matter of if, but of when, when one day we wake up and ask ourselves, “Why are my children and grandchildren valuing obedience to the stateaboveall else; where is democracy; where is freedom; where is tolerance; and where is the Hong Kong that we knew?” Today, Hong Kong faces “national cleansing” from China, and there are those among us who refuse to bow down, who refuse to become a forgotten footnote in history.

The matter of Hong Kong Independence is both a political and an ethical one. In the span of 170-ish years, since Hong Kong opened as a port in 1841, and until 1997, Hong Kong has developed its own unique culture, history, way of living,and religious beliefs. Shielded by the Brits, Hong Kong was spared the anti-intellectual destruction that Communist China imposed upon itself. There was no Cultural Revolution in Hong Kong,and the society we have here is built upon reason and morals. Justas there is no freedom of speech in China,and the society they have there is built upon fear and obedience. The difference between us in the South and them in the North is far beyond just geographical distance. It is a matter of cultural values, and of civilisation. To this day China is still essentially a closed, inwards-looking, and authoritarian society, with many national peoples being forced to obey. By virtue of its historical, geographical, and cultural uniqueness, Hong Kong is truly a separate entity from the so-called “Chinese nation”. Weare our own, and sadly, we are a nation that is quickly being annexed and destroyed by China. The cry for Hong Kong’s Independence is therefore a cry against colonial invasion. It is an ethical cry for liberation, and it is a political cry for our own continued existence. We were once colonised by the Brits, and now weare by the Chinese. Where is our right to determine our own futureasa national people?

The government trying to ban our operations did not comeas surprise to us in the National Party. Ever since our companies registration ban and our election disqualification, all of our activities faced degrees of physical opposition and surveillance. From the very beginning, the government has decided to rid us of our freedoms, if not more. Our Party is not the first victim,and it will not be the last. Those who come after us will do well to prepare themselves for more to come.

The Police and the Security Bureau have very kindly compiled a 700-pages long document as “evidence” for banning our Party. Since we’re here at the FCC I’m going to assume you’veat least skimmed the the PDFs we’ve uploaded. And I’m sure you’ve laughed as well after reading them. The hundred upon hundred pages of so-called “evidence” are mostly just screenshots of our Party’s Facebook Page! It’s frankly absurd how these government elites could imagine some paragraphs on the Internet and my own sayings on a radio show could constitute “a threat to national security”. Imagine the insecurity!

All that we’ve done, the Party and myself,areall protected within the International Human Rights Law. The legal clause that our government used, the Societies Ordinance, isarelic left behind since the British Colonial days. What better law than this! Our Chinese colonial mastersare unironically happy to tell us all that, yes, they are colonising Hong Kong, and yes, Hong Kong’s freedoms are just for show.

If the idea of “One Country, Two Systems” were to really work, none of the above would’ve happened. That they did is conclusive proof that there is only “One Empire, and One System”. China has turned its back on the Sino-British Joint Declaration, and the UK, as a co-signatory, must act on this. This is Britain’s inescapable duty, asa nation of honourand democracy, to stand up against such atrocities. Hong Kong’s rights and freedoms will soon be all gone, and all will be too late by then.

The events thus far has also proven that the unique position of Hong Kong is now lost. Whatever Western values we had are now replaced by ideologies from Communist China. The Hong Kong government now serves not the interests of the Hong Kong people, nor those who have dealings with us, but only the interestsalone of Peking. Countriesand nationsallaround the world need to understand this, and actaccordingly. The US, in particular, should review the conditions set out in the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act, and start sanctioning those Hong Kong government official who trampled on our human rights. The incentives here extend far beyond the ethical.

Think about how much more clout the US would have on China if the current trade war extends to Hong Kong. Many of the Chinese already store their actual capital here. If the US truly wish to deal an economic blow to China, the US-HK Policy Act should not be overlooked.

The Hong Kong National Party hopes that the international community can, like the US, objectively review the imperialistic threat that is coming from China. You may not have tasted its sting yet, but those of us who are stuck next to China’s expansionist borders may soon be no more. Hong Kong now faces ethical and cultural challenges from the North - who knows when such challenges turn into the humanitarian kind. International aid must come, and come quickly. For time is running out, and I don’t say this as Convenor of the Hong Kong National Party, but as Andy Chan, a surviving Hong Konger.



原文連結
繼續閱讀



【立場新聞】楊繼昌:如果港獨派成立「香港共產黨」 (1790)


多得警方和保安局加持,國家領導人梁振英全力抬槓,沉寂多時的港獨思潮忽爾全球關注,陳浩天得以蜚聲國際,歐美傳媒爭相訪問報導這位香港民族黨召集人的一言一行。是日在外國記協的會場,中聯辦動用大媽和維園阿伯到場展示的愛國反獨情操,更會一一攝入外媒的鏡頭內,放大一人民族黨的光環。

照理北京應該清楚,無端招呼民族黨,結果是成就陳浩天聲名,但如果有意為之,背後的動機實在難以用常理去推論。現在本土民運缺乏方向,支持民主的市民無力感深重,23條根本可以像一地兩檢法案那樣,在立法會以快刀斬亂麻的形式通過,可不必大費周章製造輿論。就如特區政府濫用《社團條例》這件事情本身,反對派陣營完全不能組織任何反制行動,還加深了泛民之間的裂痕。公民黨黨魁楊岳橋,就被指反對立場不夠堅決,遠訪美國途中也受到港僑備好道具罵他投共。

誠如陳浩天所言,無論你有幾多法理依據,司法抗爭也是徒然,針對特區政府將來透過《社團條例》扼殺結社自由,議會內、街頭上也難見出路。但如不想坐以待斃,就要想像一點非正常的手段。試想想,如果陳浩天最終按保安局要求,停止香港民族黨原本已經沒有的運作,另立「香港共產黨」,保安局是禁還是不禁?

如果陳浩天再狡詐一點,將中國共產黨的黨章通篇照抄,成為「香港共產黨」的黨章,只是稍稍將之「本土化」,黨綱是在港建立「有香港特色的社會主義制度」,那鐵定是違反基本法「香港特別行政區不實行社會主義制度和政策,保持原有的資本主義制度和生活方式」的條文了,保安局難道不禁?

禁的話,「香港政府禁止共產黨在香港運作」則成為國際大新聞,或許對反對派而言只是精神勝利,但好歹也叫做出一口氣。不禁的話,那操作的空間就更大了,輪到選舉主任要審視「香港共產黨」能否成為兩級議會的候選人。選舉主任如要DQ「香港共產黨」,用什麼理由實在惹人期待。一旦讓「香港共產黨」的參選人入閘,分分鐘可以像「本土派」狙擊泛民一樣,變成「香港共產黨」狙擊建制派,尤其過去幾屆立法會選舉,新興政治勢力都能搶得議席,「香港共產黨」不單可以搶到年輕激進的抗議票,也有機會混水摸魚分到深藍絲的盲毛票,絕對有改寫本土政黨勢力版圖的潛力。

如果港獨派有能人志士有此機心的話,特區政府一眾官僚可有排頭痕,雖不能直擊要害,但總好過現在毫無還擊之力。我期待港共一大的勝利召開。可以的話,我也希望有幸成為港共一大的代表。



原文連結
繼續閱讀

【立場新聞】周耀輝:給阿妹:我們,越愛你,越覺得無能 (1058)


早幾天寫的,為了今天,給阿妹——《Amazing》

有時候,相信文藝相信創作,作為文字人,我相信書寫可以無窮。

有時候,猛烈的覺得即使滴下一切心血,也換不來一條命,盡了,還寫什麼好。

好在還有剎那的記憶,記憶的剎那。

在阿姆斯特丹機場接你,你拿著行李,背著吉他,吉他彷彿比你還要大,像你這樣好看的女生,多少人趕著幫你,但你偏偏自己來。

然後,為了一首詞,我們談了好長的電話,開始明白你的創傷與脆弱。你的 demo 裡好像聽到你在哽咽。

然後,在台北,我們湊巧都在,約了喝咖啡,還談到你打算做國語專輯在台灣發展與生活,當然還有戀愛,談得很開心,還為了「不脫知女生」而碰杯。

然後,回到香港,你找我寫詞,我邀請你來我九龍城家的天台上,喝酒吃法包煙三文魚和沙拉,假裝在歐洲般一起用了大半天寫了三首詞。而我沒有告訴你,我們年紀差了二十多年,還可以這樣合寫,我居然想到執子之手。

然後,我聽到關於你的擔憂,在半山可以看到中環的咖啡館陽台上,你跟我說你的狀況,給我看你新做的紋身,和治療師鼓勵你做的畫作。當中的美麗與哀愁叫我心亂。

然後,在人山人海的客廳裡,你為了演唱會跟我拍一段片。周圍都是愛你的人,你興致勃勃。

然後,在人家的演唱會後台,我們碰面,擁抱,我觸到你背上的骨頭,來不及說什麼就道別了。

然後,是今年初,我去台北做新書活動,書是關於我母親的,而我覺得你是我在台北的親人啊,請你來,你說要看到時如何,說不準。你來了。第二天,我們坐下來好好聊聊,原來你的狀況好像差了,但你也說會去香港找治療,那裡好像合適一點。你也說寫了新歌。

然後,我聽到你的新歌,然後你也找我寫詞。我以為⋯

在你離開之前幾天,我們還在手機裡聊著歌詞,你問我在香港嗎?如果在,見見面啊。我拍了面前的景象發了照片給你,有山有水,德國南部。你回了一個字:Amazing。

那是你給我最後的一個字。

然後,你走了,縱然你還感應美好,縱然你的身邊還有很多美好的人,很多美好的愛,你依然走了。我們,越愛你,越覺得無能。

是不能不願不敢接受的,但,兜兜轉轉反反覆覆,還是稍稍可以接受的,是無能,是縱或無能,也相信並且覺得你依然感應美好,你依然美好,我們依然愛你,你依然愛我們。

為了你給我的最後一個字,我無能,為力。

Amazing。

(文題本為「Amazing」,現題為編輯所擬)



原文連結
繼續閱讀



【蘋果日報】世道人生:多餘的話 (1702)

因失去權勢而成為鍵盤戰士的梁振英,連續向外國記者協會(FCC)開火,使未有註冊而且似乎只有一兩人的「政黨」和陳浩天,廣受國際媒體關注。香港民族黨在當局打壓下,今後難免活動受限,但在香港人特別是年輕人心中卻已經進佔了一席位。前天在美加報章刊登廣告宣佈在紐約註冊成立的上海民族黨,很可能是受香港民族黨的概念啟發。上海民族黨力主從中國獨立,「反專制、反大一統」,「脫華歸歐,全盤西化」。
儘管左報和一些向中共表忠討賞的人士,以各種違反常識的理由攻擊FCC對陳浩天的演講邀約,即使有媒體基於權位與利益的考量,作出違背言論自由原則的編輯取向,但他們心中怎會不知道這是「政治正確」而不是言論自由?
所謂「政治正確」,無非是屈從於權勢的非出自本心的選擇。而言論自由的原則,就是任何意見都可以發表,都可以討論,無所謂「政治正確」。
支持FCC有邀請任何意見人士演講的自由,這是持自由法治價值觀的市民、民主派從政人士、論政者所強調的,不過,許多人在表態支持言論自由的時候,總不忘要講一句「我不支持港獨」。這是一句「多餘的話」,多這一句正正說明他的所謂支持言論自由,其實自己的思想意識並不自由,因為也受「政治正確」綁架。這種「政治正確」意識的來由,一是認為中共的絕對權力不可抗拒,二是對中共長期宣傳的「愛國就是好,不愛國就是壞;統一是天經地義,獨立是彌天大罪」這種觀念,已經內化為自己的深層意識。
多一句「不支持港獨」,反映了人們的深層意識中的奴隸意識。深層意識出自本能反應而非出自知識或常理,因為他不會問:愛國有甚麼好?不愛國有甚麼不好?統一有甚麼好?獨立又有甚麼不好?
從人類歷史或社會文明發展來看,或從現實來看,愛國對個人對國家都沒有好處。對個人來說,許多向祖國獻身的愛國者都受到悲慘對待,不愛國就可免此災劫;對國家來說,如柏楊所說,掌權者的「愛國最終變成誤國」,「再愛就把國家愛死掉了」。從中外歷史來看,總是在國家分裂或小國時期才有社會文明的大發展,春秋戰國、魏晉南北朝、意大利文藝復興,都如是;大一統和中央集權之下,人們的創造力無法發揮;即使在專制時代,也是中央權力不太膨脹的宋朝在文化文明上最輝煌。毛澤東在將近一百年前的1920年,於《大公報》連續發表過12篇文章,力主打破大一統的「大中國」,由各省建立許多「小中國」,並說要從湖南做起,推動湖南獨立。
從現實來看,現在你到了外國,是想外國人把你看作中國人還是香港人?你在超市買東西,想選擇香港製造、台灣製造還是中國製造?你真的希望香港和台灣都同中國融為一體,以後所有產品都是「中國製造」嗎?你真的希望以後都以中國人的身份在全世界旅遊嗎?若不是,那就請不要在「支持言論自由」的表述之前加一句多餘的話。
https://www.facebook.com/mrleeyee

李怡



原文連結
繼續閱讀

【立場新聞】林超英:填海造地是恐龍概念,違反中央治國新理念 (831)


香港某集團最近強力推銷在大嶼山東部海面填海造地2200公頃,建設新的都會,聲稱建議跳出框框,其實這是新瓶舊酒,翻炒幾十年前提出過但被否決的概念。

我們有很多理由認為這個「新」概念是不必要和不切實際的,例如:沒有真正需要(有其他土地選項),香港人口最新官方預測是接近世紀中期最高820萬(不是土地供應專責小組採用的920萬),造價是數千億元(如果不超支變成萬億令政府庫房清倉)的天文數字,比美國建立太空軍種這等重大國防項目還貴,我相信這個建議的出現與某些人對庫房的錢發生興趣有關。

不過我認為最關鍵的一點,是時代改變了,價值觀念改變了,全世界包括中國內地都從痛苦的經驗中認識到,粗放型的「經濟發展」破壞氣候和自然生態,正在急速演化成危害人類自身生存的噩夢,今年全球的熱浪就是自然給我們的警告,讓我借用伍美琴教授的文字說明情況:「在氣候變化陰霾下,全球都在轉型,加緊發展科技,要建低碳城市、房屋、汽車、基建等,好讓人過低碳生活。為了使發展更正義,各大城市都研究如何縮窄貧富懸殊。而我們未來要建的城市數目遠比現有城市多,誰懂得在還原生態的同時又可滿足城市發展需要,誰曉得建設生態和人性化的人居聚落,誰就不愁沒有推動有意義的經濟發展的動力。20世紀不擇手段、只顧牟取暴利的時代,正被人唾棄。」(註1)

香港不少人包括財團、精英分子及社會上流人物,長期以來抱持看不起「大陸」的心態,也不留意內地的正面變化,現實是國家進步了,醒覺四十年來在急促「發展」中吃了太多傷害自然的苦頭,在治國理念方面作出了實在的回應,2017年十九大確立了「綠水青山就是金山銀山」,國務院的決策部署堅持生態優先和綠色發展,在海洋方面嚴守保護海洋生態紅線,走向了煞停「向海要地」的工作思路。

反觀香港,眾多財團和精英們的思維依停留在粗放發展、勞動密集的「膠花時代」,一談經濟發展便「膠花」上身,以為必需多點地

建多些廠,多些人造多些膠花,星期一至星期七,倚靠大量生產賺取低端的增值,正因如此才會出現在未來經濟模式毫無具體論述的情況下,誇誇而談在大海中央拓地二千公頃的怪論。自回歸以來香港經濟轉型講了二十多年,真正需要的是政府提出的科技創新、工業2.0和智慧城市等概念,不是盲目填海造地然後「等運到」、等人投資建廠啊!

就在香港某些集團沸沸揚揚地推銷填海造地二千公頃之際,7月25日國務院發布了《關於加強濱海濕地保護、嚴格管控圍填海的通知》(註2),核心內容是「除國家重大戰略項目外,全面停止新增圍填海項目審批」,所謂「國家重大戰略項目」則由「黨中央、國務院、中央軍委」決定,可見門檻極高,不涉及國家安全的項目基本上免問,通告反映國家對過去破壞海洋的痛定思痛,對建立生態文明重要性的深入認識,以及治國方針的重大轉變和決心。

海南島未批先建的人工島已勒令停工  (圖片來源:中新社)

海南島未批先建的人工島已勒令停工 (圖片來源:中新社)

香港眾多財團和精英們,衷心建議你們提高對新的生態文明時代和新的經濟模式的認識,以及對國家治國新理念的了解,忘掉「向海要地」的恐龍時代概念,切實投入建設新社會和新經濟,不浪費土地而善用腦袋和人性為香港人的美好未來作出應有貢獻。


註1     伍美琴:「填海造地建屋,還是建城、建人?」  明報,2018年6月12日
註2     《國務院關於加強濱海濕地保護、嚴格管控圍填海的通知》  中央人民政府網站,2018年7月25日



原文連結
繼續閱讀



2018-08-13

【蘋果日報】中南海浮沉:特朗普備而不用的撒手鐧(林和立) - 林和立 (1095)

中美貿易戰一開始便是一場不對稱的交鋒。特朗普勝券在握的原因包括中國對美國出口依賴度遠高於後者、中國的高科技發展要看老美臉色、不少中資與外資因為美國關稅問題已撤離到東南亞而引發失業危機;同時,中南海為了救市被迫取消近年收緊信貸的政策,央行今年量化寬鬆的速度據報已遠遠超越溫家寶08年底的四萬億元「放水規模」。但民眾對「印鈔票經濟學」已失去信心,加以專制機器殘酷打壓上京請願的「P2P金融難民」,一般中產都千方百計收購美元甚至把兒女安放在美國。畢竟自六四事件後中共黨內的權貴已開了「發財在大陸、儲錢在美國」的歪風。
特朗普隨時令中共跪低的撒手鐧不花一分一毫,更不用動用巡航導彈:華盛頓早已掌握以幾十萬計中共高幹、紅二、三代,以及有黨政後台的國營與私營企業的老闆存放在美國金融機構天文數字款項的資料。這些入了美籍的精英亦包括替他們獲取知識產權與進行投資活動的「白手套」與高管人員。這清單一旦公佈定會把中共的合法性打個稀巴爛。中國蟻民終於明白「打虎英雄」習總為何遲遲不迫令幹部公佈他們的「海外關係」,包括在美國的龐大資產。習大大最近已因為搞封建復辟與無法應付美國佬的挑戰而腹背受敵,美國假如全數公佈中共擁有美國國籍的高幹與他們在美的財產有可能引發自1989年以來最大規模的街頭「反黨」抗爭。北京頂得住特朗普把中共權貴「大起底」的世紀「陰謀」嗎?
貿易戰前已有迹象顯示特朗普正向在美投放數千億美元的中共大富豪及其高級職員動手。去年底香港前高官何志平因涉嫌替一間準國有能源公司在非洲賄賂政要而被拘留。美國傳媒在五月透露白宮已掌握一份13名中國的銀行高層在美國的公務與私人存儲清單,一旦這些公司繼續與朝鮮做生意則相關資金與人馬有可能會被凍結或放上黑名單!最近特朗普重新制裁伊朗,為數眾多的中國跨國公司尤其是銀行與石油企業隨時墮入美國的法網。

美國不欲中共垮台

問題是,特朗普會公佈現任或前任中共中央委員或以上的高幹、他們的近親與他們支撐的企業高管人員在美國的居留權與在美的資產嗎?答案是,起碼暫時不會。第一,華盛頓繼續歡迎各國財閥把錢投放在美國:這對當地經濟有好處,而且為中情局提供絕佳情報。第二,不少美國銀行的大陸顧客已取得公民身份,聯邦政府沒有充份理由不可以公開他們的賬戶與資料。第三,亦是最重要的是,特朗普與美國主流精英不希望中共垮台!中共如何嚴苛地對付異見分子在西方社會有廣泛報道,但作為世界第二經濟體的老共向歐美跨國公司提供大量收益,而且吸取民脂民膏的中共高層往往把他們的不義之財存放在美國。美國雖然備受解放軍越來越厲害的武器威脅,但老美在許多方面是中共不公義與獨裁制度的獲益者。更何況解放軍不可能把導彈射往中共權貴聚居的洛杉磯與紐約!
古今研究「霸權轉移範式」的學者都同意所謂修昔底德陷阱,即一個新崛起的大國必然要挑戰現存大國,而現存大國也必然會回應這種威脅,戰爭變得無可避免。美國芝加哥大學研究大國關係的權威米爾斯海默(John Mearsheimer)亦同意中美開火的機會甚高。據他分析,中國的經濟奇蹟假如延續下去,必然會發展超級大國級的軍力來控制整個亞太區,結果是中美發生「非常嚴重的國家安全競賽」,使到「戰爭的可能性無時無刻不存在」。
但中美爭霸戰的國力基準與歷史上曾墮入修昔底德陷阱的大國有顯著差異。看看西班牙超越葡萄牙、德國趕過英國與法國、日本逾越中國、美國凌駕蘇聯等,它們惡鬥的本錢都是經濟、軍事與背後的國家治理體系。但歷史上從未見過一個準超級大國的精英在企圖跨越現存超級大國的過程中大量把老婆仔女以及巨額財富挪移到他們世紀競爭者的國度裏!最近備受批評的清華大學國情專家胡鞍鋼曾吹噓中國在經濟、科技以及綜合國力等領域已超越美國。開玩笑!中美博弈的癥結是:中國老百姓與官員對一個與改革為敵的大獨裁者失去信心、對與普世價值背道而馳的文化與制度失去信心。當然他們對人民幣同樣失去信心,所以儘管他們並不一定欣賞狂人特朗普,但有選擇的話,他們寧願仿效權貴把兒女與錢財搬到美國去!

林和立



原文連結
繼續閱讀

【關鍵評論】Alvin:清華德國留學生交功課「踩紅線」 中國取消簽證限十日內離境 (5474)

德國一名拿獎學金到北京清華大學讀新聞系的大學生,近日突然被當局注銷其簽證,該大學生解釋,這與他早前提交的一份功課有關。而今日中國官媒《環球時報》也作出了回應。

今年24歲的David Missal去年開始到清華就讀為期兩年的碩士課程,原本還剩一年時間,但他早前打算去續期時,被當局拒絕,指他所從事的活動不屬於他學生簽證的範疇。當他詢問自己所犯何事,對方回說他「心裡有數」。

從Missal上傳的相片可見,他去年獲批一年的簽證,原本到9月6日才到期,但8月3日已被當局注銷,限他8月12日或之前離境,而他也不可以申請新的簽證。

Missal解釋,相信與他為碩士班學業拍攝的迷你紀錄片有關,該片涉及「七○九大抓捕」事件與人權問題。報導指,雖然教授容許他做這個題目,但校方卻因此受到當局人員「關切」。雖曾兩度被警告不要做政治敏感的題目,但Missal則表示「想認識中國社會及政治」而繼續探訪。

Missal拍攝並訪談了多名律師或家屬,其中包括被捕律師王全幛的妻子李文足。李文足今年四月在發起徒步百里「尋夫之旅」的期間,Missal曾跟踪拍攝,並遭到警方拘押和訊問。

另外,Missal與維權律師藺其磊5月曾前往武漢探視政治犯、知名民權人士秦永敏,以手機拍攝影片時,遭警方粗暴對待。警方要求他離開武漢並刪除影片,但他拒絕就範,警方甚至將他拘捕,責令他返回北京。

在武漢事件後,Missal的指導教授遭校方高層「關切」,校方聲稱對他簽證遭拒無可奈何。

Missal表示,他的作業從未在個人部落格和YouTube之外的地方發表。他認為,閱覽人數少於100人。針對自身情況,他說:「從某方面來說,過去兩個月,我的確更瞭解中國社會和政治。」

Missal已經在8月12日週日早間登上飛機離開中國。他在Twitter上說:「我的中國故事很快將結束,一個小時內將離開中國。很傷心被逼離開,但我仍喜歡中國,因為這裡的人。」他批評中國政府因此再次向國際社會展示違反人權的負面形象,並考慮未來前往台灣求學。

Missal來自德國的奧斯納布魯克(Osnabrück),到清華研究所前,他曾修讀中國研究,又曾在南京與北京居住。他表示,曾期望大學校園內會有更多的自由。另外,Missal是德意志學術交流中心獎學金項目留學生。德意志學術交流中心對事態發展表示遺憾,但認為這只是個別情況。

《環球時報》下午在網站刊出文章《德國留學生被限期離華,一點不冤枉》,指外國大學生在中國留學,當兩地社會價值發生衝突時,應當由中方的法規說了算;又指「他們(外國)一時理解不了,就讓他們慢慢去領悟吧。只要中國足夠強大,這個過程會逐漸推進的。」文章又指Missal在中國「只學了點皮毛」,認為他的行動顯示出「他既沒有理解中國的政治、法律邏輯,也沒有學得哪怕一部分中國人的內斂和謙遜。」文章不滿中國留學生在德國對藏獨、疆獨的議題「開展鬥爭」時,會被定性為從事政治活動,而在德國深入查一些敏感資料「也可能被盯上」,但「西方人無論鼓搗(中國)什麼事,都是正義的」。

從2015年7月9日開始,中國司法當局對維權律師、律師事務所工作人員以及其他活躍人士展開了大規模的打壓行動,迄今為止共有三百多人被捕,這是對人權律師和活動人士最大的一場打壓,所謂「709大抓捕」。事件中大多數人獲判緩刑,但若干人士因顛覆國家政權而被判處長刑期,有人仍在等待判刑。

無國界記者組織指出,中國是世界上被關押記者和網路作家最多的國家。每天官方媒體都會接到宣傳部門的通知,要求他們迴避哪些敏感話題,或只能引用官方新華社的通稿。

相關文章:



原文連結
繼續閱讀

【蘋果日報】世道人生:放水市道 (李怡) - 李怡 (889)

中共政治局7月底會議傳出訊息,面對貿易戰和經濟下行形勢,大陸將放寬銀根,但繼續遏制樓價,有可能以加大基建投資來帶動經濟。香港也會配合發展大灣區基建,並對香港樓價上升帶來支持。
當前大陸經濟面對的是:貿易戰衝擊、P2P連環爆破、實體經濟資金短缺、就業隱患若隱若現。在這情況下,7月31日中共政治局通報,最受關注的是貨幣政策,即是否大舉印鈔。3月份兩會時提出的貨幣「流動性合理穩定」,這次改為「流動性合理充裕」。由「穩定」到「充裕」,也就是不再顧及通脹和貶值而大量印鈔啦。何謂「合理」?中共的所有施政包括大躍進、文革,哪一樣不「合理」?
貨幣寬鬆,銀行放水,刺激經濟政策登台,是否意味房地產又要大漲?非也。通報說:「堅決遏制房價上漲」。過往的表述是「遏制過快上漲」。去掉「過快」二字,意味不許房價漲,哪怕慢慢漲也不行。
一邊放水,一邊嚴控樓市,中共的思路就是:經濟下行,相機放水,但水一定不能流到樓市中去,樓市已經有了頗大泡沫,所以放水將放到企業中去,但不能讓企業把得到的水去炒房。
中國經濟發展是由出口、消費、投資三頭馬車帶動。出口受貿易戰影響,有下滑風險;內需消費,在國富民窮的環境下,要提升至少是長期過程。現在只能靠投資帶動增長。投資分為房地產、製造業、基建。
既然「堅決遏制房價上漲」,各地對樓價紛採限價措施,房地產投資無利可圖,自然收縮;製造業受出口下滑影響,內需消費又不振;因此,能夠帶動經濟的,只有基建。
基建可以消耗過剩的產能,提升就業率。至於有多少效益,就很難顧到了。
中國近年力推的一帶一路,在經濟上就是要將過剩產能向國外投放,但據大陸胡星斗教授的說法,中國對一帶一路的投資基本上都虧損,甚至血本無歸。他計算的結果是:如果沒有一帶一路的投資和連年大手筆的對外捐贈,這些錢足夠全部中國人三代免費醫療!不是三年免費醫療,而是三代免費醫療。
將過剩產能推向香港就不愁虧損了。高鐵工程、港珠澳大橋、機場三跑,還有幾乎所有的公共工程和絕大部份的私營企業工程,現在多由大陸的工程公司承包。97前從未出現過公共工程超支,97後成為常態;97前從沒有發生過的自動電梯事故等等劣質工程,現在也頻繁發生。根本原因,就是大陸轉嫁產能過剩、不斷在香港發展基建的結果。不用說,這也要特區政府和三權趨於合一的配合。梁振英和林鄭功不可沒。
大灣區的發展,也是為了配合中共以基建刺激經濟的政策。至於有多少香港人會去大灣區生活或謀生,只要看深圳前海十年前就說要替代香港中環,現在的成績如何,就知道了。
在大陸放水的情況下,國企民企的主管也會發揮上有政策下有對策的各種神通,將資金調離大陸。大陸樓市限價政策不宜投資,香港就沒有限價,因此香港樓市泡沫會否爆破,並非取決本地的經濟因素,而是受大陸客不理價錢不斷入市所影響。有大陸客托市,樓市泡沫怎會爆破?
http://www.facebook.com/mrleeyee

李怡



原文連結
繼續閱讀